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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.