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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However the latest race is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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