Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
