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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd